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Independent analysis on the UAE economy, sovereign capital, AI infrastructure, energy transition and the businesses shaping the next cycle.
FeaturedReal Estate
UBS ranks Dubai fourth out of 23 cities on its Global Real Estate Bubble Index this year, just below the high risk band occupied by Zurich and Tokyo. The same report also says a skilled worker needs only five years of income to buy an apartment near the centre, a third of what it takes in Hong Kong. Both numbers are describing the same market.
Partnerships
The EU's Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism flew to Dubai this week, sat down with the UAE's economy minister and both national carriers, and delivered a message that went well beyond the usual diplomatic language. With the EU already supplying a fifth of Dubai's visitors, the timing of the visit was not incidental.
Economy
Dubai pulled in roughly 7 million visitors between January and August, a period that covered seven months of a regional war. August alone came in at 63 percent of last year's pace, and the industry is now betting on winter, Emirates and a packed events calendar to close the gap.
Markets
A little known US backed company has been handed 100 year concessions to 17 Venezuelan oilfields, several of them previously run by Chinese state firms. For Beijing, which has poured more than 100 billion dollars into Venezuela since 2000, the fields changing hands are the easy part to see. The debt left behind is the part that does not show up in a press release.
Infrastructure
Dubai has already put Dh13 billion in contracts to work on Al Maktoum International Airport this year, and it plans to award another Dh55 billion before the year is out. Between the piling numbers and the automated people mover contract alone, the scale here is hard to overstate.
Energy
The pipeline deal that has supplied Turkey with Iranian gas since 2001 lapsed at the end of July, right as the US Treasury turns up pressure on every country still trading with Tehran. Turkey has spent months quietly building the alternatives it would need if this exact moment arrived.
Markets
Goldman Sachs now puts Chinese growth at around 4 percent early in the third quarter, down from 4.3 percent and short of Beijing's own target. The bank reads the miss as a reason policymakers finally move, not a reason to worry, and the gap between those two reactions is the part investors are pricing.
Real Estate
Occupancy across Dubai's three integrated economic zones hit 96 percent in the first half of the year, with the company count up 13 percent and headcount up 24 percent. The zones are responding by building rather than waiting, and the investment arm attached to them is now the busiest venture backer in the country.
Finance
London's non dom exodus and volatility around the Gulf have sent tens of thousands of wealthy households looking for a new base, and most of that money has landed in Dubai. Turkey now wants a share of it, and its pitch to the Istanbul Financial Centre is more serious than the reputation suggests.
Finance
The Dubai International Financial Centre has passed 10,000 active firms for the first time, adding 2,318 new companies in a single year even as a regional conflict weighed on tourism, aviation and property. The resilience of the finance and wealth sectors is the part worth sitting with.
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